Professor Kym Anderson of University of Adelaide presented his work on global food security at Natural Resources in Demand Symposium: Global and Local Perspectives, 10th October 2012 at Waite campus, University of Adelaide.
Economic growth continues in large, natural resource-poor Asian countries may bring some implications for global food markets and food security, non-agricultural primary products markets and Australia-New Zealand and other natural resource-rich countries’ trade.China and India account for 40 % of the world’s population. Hence they may bring more implications for global food security than economic expansion of now-developed countries such as Japan.
Prof Anderson’s research uses a GTAP global economy-wide model to project the world economy from 2007 or pre-global financial crisis to 2030. Energy prices might remain high and volatile although there are potentials for finding alternative energy source. FAO and OECD argue agricultural prices will remain high and volatile. But this will depend on whether biofuel subsidies remain, etc.
The simulation predicts that world GDP will grow by 2.5%, population grows by 0.9%, and agricultural land decreases by 0.2%. Looking at regional shares of global GDP, contribution of high-income economies will be decreasing while developing countries will contribute more to the global income. But this is mostly a China’s story.
Many food-deficit countries worry about food self-sufficiency. A better indicator of access to food is real household food consumption per capita. However, food and energy security concerns may increase as Asian industrialisation proceeds. China especially may not allow food self-sufficiency to fall greatly. Agricultural rates of assistance are rising rapidly in China and India.
*This summary is written by Risti Permani.